Despite adding some serious talent in the NFL Draft, including a pair of first-round picks in Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., Vegas still isn’t buying what the Falcons are selling.
Last offseason, after adding Kirk Cousins on a $180 million free agent deal, oddsmakers set the Falcons’ total at 9.5 wins, which they obviously didn’t eclipse. With virtually the same offense, minus Cousins in favor of Michael Penix Jr. and Ryan Neuzil instead of Drew Dalman, along with what should be a much-improved defense, the Falcons’ win total has dropped all the way to 7.5 for this season.
2025 post-NFL Draft over/unders at @BetMGM:
11.5: BAL, BUF, KC, PHI
10.5: DET, SF
9.5: CIN, DEN, GB, HOU, LAC, LAR, TB, WAS
8.5: AZ, CHI, MIA, MIN, PIT
7.5: ATL, DAL, IND, JAX, NE, SEA
6.5: CAR, LV, NO
5.5: NYG, NYJ, TEN
4.5: CLE— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) April 28, 2025
Simply put, the reason why Vegas is much lower on the Falcons this year compared to last is the quarterback position.
Kirk Cousins was a proven commodity who was going to help a talented, yet underachieving offense reach its full potential. Now, the Falcons have an unknown commodity in Michael Penix Jr.
A three-game sample size isn’t large enough to sell oddsmakers on the idea of Atlanta unseating Tampa Bay atop the NFC South. They have won it four years in a row and boast the best quarterback in the division.
It only makes sense to have them with the highest win total, but that provides value for the Falcons. If you believe in Penix and Raheem Morris, eight wins should be easily accomplished and a great bet. Clearly, Vegas doesn’t, though.
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Photographer: Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
